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Our calculations

man writing calculations on a blackboardOur calculations

Every year, Energy Saving Trust's savings data and statistics is updated. We publish information on how much money and carbon can be saved in the home across a range of measures, from insulating your home to buying the most efficient TVs.

Our savings calculations are a good start for householders to get an idea of what savings could be possible to achieve. However, the data is based on averages and should therefore be treated as a guide. So, if you are looking to install something more specialist or expensive, you should look at getting more in-depth advice that is specific to your home.

Annual Updates

Fuel and electricity prices and carbon factors change from year to year, and sometimes quite substantially. Naturally, this affects how much money and carbon you can expect to save from installing energy efficiency measures, and how cost-effective certain measures will be.

Although the pace of change might have slowed recently, housing is becoming more efficient year-on-year. We also factor this into our savings, as the more measures you install; the less is saved per measure on average.

The biggest changes often come from renewables, where incentives can change and the up-front cost changes annually. In the case of solar PV in particular, the system costs have fallen quite dramatically as the Feed-in-tariff came to an end in April 2019.

Our Update Process

First we look at the state of the housing stock – with data sources such as the English Housing Survey and statistics available from the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. We can then work out how much insulation is installed and assess the average efficiency of boilers across the UK. We use U-vales from the Standard Assessment Procedure, or SAP, and government in-use factors to account for the difference between modelled savings and in-situ savings. We also account for the heat replacement effect.

Then we review domestic energy prices based on sources of energy price data that we purchase. We also update the carbon factors we use each year with the latest published data from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). From there, it’s about cross-checking and validating our existing models, and making changes where necessary.

When it comes to our water savings, we assume all bill savings from water meters based on a weighted average of water and sewerage charges for all companies in England and Wales. For transport related savings, we use average petrol and diesel prices from the previous year for the UK and Scotland and make assumptions related to the average mileage for each region.

Data Quality

As time goes on, more criteria can be measured, and factored in to help improve the quality of our data. For example, our heating savings are modelled alongside improvements to the Standard Assessment Procedure, or SAP, which is the methodology used to assess the energy efficiency of homes. Recent changes have included incorporating regional differences in climate, say between Scotland and the South West, when it comes to heating requirements. We also look to model new technologies when they come along, such as new, more efficient, electric storage heaters.

Field trials and other in-situ monitoring are really valuable to improve the accuracy of our data, giving us more data to check our assumptions against. We are always looking for the best available data out there, to best represent the current situation for householders.

Fuel prices and Carbon factors

Fuel prices are constantly changing. Therefore we regularly review the savings figures we provide to match the most up to date prices. Our fuel prices and carbon factors were last reviewed in March 2019. In all our calculations we assume the following average fuel prices and carbon factors for GB households:

England, Scotland and Wales

Fuel prices

Gas

Oil

 LPG

Wood pellet

Average price (pence/kWh)*

3.74

5.24

6.86

6.45

Standing charge (£/year) 85.53 - - -

Carbon dioxide factor (kgCO2/kWh)

0.184

0.245

0.214 

0.000

 

Fuel prices

 Coal / solid fuel

Electricity (off-peak economy 7)

Electricity (on-peak economy 7)              

Electricity (standard rate)

Average price (pence/kWh)

4.00

9.10 19.00 15.75
Standing charge (£/year) - 82.25 77.02

Carbon dioxide factor (kgCO2/kWh)

0.315

0.305

0.305

0.305

Fuel prices last updated in March 2019, based on average fuel costs over the previous 12 months.

Northern Ireland

Fuel prices

Gas

Oil

 LPG

Wood pellet

Average price (pence/kWh)

4.76

4.98

9.42

4.68

Standing charge (£/year) - - - -

Carbon dioxide factor (kgCO2/kWh)

0.184

0.245

0.214 

0.000

 

Fuel prices

 Coal / solid fuel

Electricity (off-peak economy 7)

Electricity (on-peak economy 7)      

Electricity (standard rate)

Average price (pence/kWh)

3.48

9.00

20.42

17.50

Standing charge (£/year) - 78.80 - -

Carbon dioxide factor (kgCO2/kWh)

0.315

0.305

0.305

0.305

Fuel prices last updated in March 2019, based on average fuel costs over the previous 12 months. 

For enquiries about more savings figures and statistics please contact our business development team, on business@est.org.uk